The Market

Five key Consumer Trends

The five key Consumer Trends evolving in the post-covid world which we believe will shape the future development of the market are:

1. Value Scrutiny
   As a result of the cost-of-living squeeze, the consumer is ever more precious about their leisure time and how they spend their leisure pound. Frequency of visit is down, but when people are out, they are willing to opt for a premium experience, but are less forgiving when the operator gets things wrong.
   
   The other component of value is of course price, it is therefore critical to remain structured and systematic in the way you take price by product and by business, with decisions based on regular peer group price surveys, remaining acutely aware of market and product relativities, and on price elasticity.
    
2. Premiumisation & Experience
   The second key trend we see is around premiumisation and experience, which recognises the growing importance of quality in all that is done for the guest and the need to provide a better overall experience, not just stopping at good food and beverage. Having a great environment and great standards has never been more critical to success. We believe that successful operators will be those that have the courage and financial capability to invest to transform the image of their offers, premiumising as they do so, and driving higher spend as a consequence.
   
   However, premiumisation and experience are not solely about capital, it is also about having the operational ability to design experience-led events and offers that appeal to a more discerning guest.
    
3. Technology & Data
   The third key trend that we see is around the use of technology and data. It is fair to say that we have never had as much access to data than we do today, nor that our guests have ever been more comfortable engaging with technology, than they are today.
   
   The challenge is to use that data to personalise communication with our guests, and to improve their interaction with technology platforms. To achieve this, there will need to be continual investment in ever-more sophisticated CRM systems.
    
4. Health & Wellbeing
   The fourth key trend we see is around health and wellbeing, which has been a theme for several years, but which we believe will continue to strengthen. Consumers are increasingly interested in, and knowledgeable about nutrition, and in managing their weekly approach to diet. We do not believe that this means that people will reject alcohol, red meat, and desserts but they do want to know what they are consuming and want to have choice throughout the week.
    
5. Sustainability & conscientious consumption
   The final trend that we see is around sustainability and conscientious consumption. There is no doubt that sustainability has risen sharply in terms of awareness across the UK, but currently there is less evidence yet, of a change in behaviour of our guests in terms of how they spend their money, and certainly less appetite to pay for more sustainable choices. However, this trend is growing, and we feel that we need to keep progressing, as the consumer will, at some time in the future, start to favour those businesses that are ‘greener’ across the spectrum.

Looking ahead, the market's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. While economic conditions are likely to remain challenging in the short term, continued innovation in menu offerings, sustainability, and digital transformation will be critical in driving long-term growth. Operators that can balance cost pressures with consumer demand for affordability and experience will be well-placed to capitalize on opportunities in the coming years. Longer term, Lumina Intelligence forecasts that the UK Eating Market will grow at c.2.4%pa over the next 3 years. Whilst they use a broad market definition, with coffee shops and fast- food predicted to be the leaders, Lumina also acknowledges that branded restaurants will continue to outperform, at the expense of independent operators in particular.

In conclusion, the UK eating out market in 2024 reflects a sector that is adapting to both economic constraints and evolving consumer preferences. With resilience, innovation, and a focus on sustainability, the market has the potential to remain a vibrant part of the UK economy.